000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT DEC 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE 
LINE...8N78W 7N105W 11N120W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
FROM 114W TO 118W AND FROM 125W TO 128W AND FROM 133W TO 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE 25N100W TO 
10N140W.  THERE ARE TWO SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE TROUGH 
AREA. ONE IS OVER MEXICO NORTH OF 25N AND IS MOVING RAPIDLY 
EAST. THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS.  THE OTHER SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE AREA FROM 15N TO 25N 
WEST OF 125W.  THERE IS AN AREA OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE 
OPEN OCEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE FROM 22N TO 27N FROM 
118W TO 130W. ALSO A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS THAT PRECEDES THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS 
ALONG THE LINE FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 127W TO 16N117W.

REMAINDER OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE COVERED BY AN UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.

SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W.  ELSEWHERE 
BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.
   
BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS ARE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WEST OF 120W NORTH 
IF THE ITCZ.
 
GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA WILL START IN 24 TO 30 
HOUR PERIOD AND WILL QUICKLY RISE TO GALE FORCE.

$$
LL