000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151528
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT DEC 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N78W 
6N100W 11N120W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 115W AND 127W 
AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E FROM 129W TO 131W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 22N W OF 130W. A 95-100 KT SUBTROPICAL 
JETSTREAM IS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N140W TO 18N129N 
WHERE WLY WINDS DECREASE TO 70-80 KT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
E OF THE TROUGH N OF 20N BETWEEN 110W-130W. MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A FAIRLY LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE 
TEXAS PANHANDLE SWWD THROUGH 30N103W THEN ACROSS NW MEXICO INTO 
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A 90-110 KT JET EXTENDS FROM 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ACROSS MEXICO TO SE TEXAS. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AT THE 
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...IS WITHIN 420 NM N OF 
THE JET AXIS. LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM 
THE CENTER ACROSS HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR INTO THE PACIFIC TO 
NEAR 10N108W. CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER LIMITED OVER THE E 
PORTION OF THE AREA UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE.

SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N130W TO 18N117W...WITH HIGH PRES 
COVERING THE REGION N OF 15N W OF 110W. 

$$
DGS