000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 7N78W 6N90W 11N120W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W 
AND 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM A FAIRLY LARGE 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SWWD THROUGH 
30N108W...SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...26N120W 27N130W TO 
ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N138W. 
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS MOVING SWD INTO THE AREA N OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE RIDGE N OF THE AREA 
ALONG 120W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS FROM GOES-11 INDICATED A 
90-110 KT SUBTROPICAL JTST S OF THE TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH 
24N130W 25N125W 23N115W THEN NEWD INTO NW MEXICO AND THE SRN 
GREAT PLAINS OF THE U.S. THE SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ADVECTING 
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SRN 
PLAINS...FUELING YET ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM OVER THE SRN 
PLAINS AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 

THE FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS WAS MAINLY ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE 
DEEP TROPICS S OF 15N W OF 110W...AND E OF 105W WITH A NARROW 
SHEAR AXIS ALONG 108W SEPARATING THE REGIONS OF ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW.  A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
DOMINATED THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 110W WITH NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 
KT IN THE TRADE WIND BELT. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W.

GAP WINDS...
TRANQUILITY REIGNS OVER THE GAP WIND AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS SWD IN THE GREAT BASIN AND E OF THE SIERRA MADRE IN 
MEXICO WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS 
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN 24 HOURS. THIS SAME SYNOPTIC 
SETUP WILL ALSO USHER IN POTENTIALLY STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS OF 
45 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 36 TO 42 HOURS. 

$$
COBB