000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142153
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 5N77W 8N85W 7N95W 
10N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM 
N OF AXIS FROM 115W TO 120W 60 NM N OF AXIS FROM 128W TO 139W.

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM A FAIRLY LARGE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS 
SWWD THROUGH 30N111W CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA 26N120 27N130W 
TO ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N140W. 
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS MOVING SWD INTO THE AREA N OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS FROM GOES-11 INDICATED 
A 90-110 KT SUBTROPICAL JTST S OF THE TROUGH AXIS CUTTING 
THROUGH 24N130W 25N112W THEN NEWD INTO THE NW MEXICO AND THE SRN 
GREAT PLAINS OF THE U.S. SUBTROPICAL JET WAS ADVECTING ABUNDANT 
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
FUELING YET ANOTHER MAJOR WINTER STORM OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND 
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 

THE FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE DEEP 
TROPICS S OF 15N W OF 110W...AND E OF 105W WITH A NARROW SHEAR 
AXIS ALONG 108W SEPARATING THE REGIONS OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  
A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N W OF 115W WITH NE 
WINDS OF 20 KT OR SO. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER 
THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W.

GAP WINDS...
TRANQUILITY REIGNS OVER THE GAP WIND AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
20 TO 25 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. AS STRONG HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD IN THE GREAT BASIN AND E OF THE SIERRA MADRE 
IN MEXICO WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THIS SAME SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL ALSO USHER IN GALE 
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITHIN 48 HOURS OR SO. 

$$
COBB