000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141511
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 5N77W 9N85W 7N95W 
10N120W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 122W TO 130W AND FROM 137W TO 140W.

...DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA WWD 
TO 25N120W 27N130W TO ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 28N140W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS 
MOVING SWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 95-105 KT JET 
IS SE OF TROUGH AXIS FROM 24N122W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA INTO NW MEXICO. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT ABUNDANT 
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SRN PLAINS. 
THE FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE DEEP 
TROPICS S OF 15N W OF ABOUT 110W. A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW IS N OF 15N W OF 115W. BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W.

BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA E OF 105W WITH
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER HONDURAS. 
THIS IS BRINGING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE RIDGE
N OF 8N. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR FROM 5N TO 24N E OF 105W.

$$
DGS