000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI DEC 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 6N78W 7N84W 6N92W
10N110W 10N120W 9N130W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W-129W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 113W-116W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A 
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM A SHEARING 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SW ARIZONA WWD THROUGH 26N120W 
27N130W TO ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION W OF 
THE AREA NEAR 23N146W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS SEEPING 
SWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE TROUGH AXIS NOTED ABOVE. FURTHER S A 
LARGE AREA OF WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS LOCATED FROM 15N 
TO JUST S OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
BEYOND 140W EWD ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO AND 
TEXAS. SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD DRIFT WINDS FROM THE GOES 11 
SATELLITE INDICATED WIND SPEEDS IN THE RANGE OF 85-100 KT W OF 
125W...AND LIGHTER E OF 125W. THIS FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT
ABUNDANT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEWD TO THE SRN PLAINS AND FUELING ANOTHER 
WINTER STORM OVER THE AREA. THE FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS BECOMES 
ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 15N W OF ABOUT 108W. AT
THE SURFACE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW INDUCING NE TO E 
WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS COVERS THE AREA N OF 10N W OF 128W. THESE 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

E OF 105W...
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THIS PART OF THE REGION
WITH AN ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NOTED NEAR PANAMA.
THIS IS BRINGING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE AREA MAINLY
N OF 6N. LIMITED MOISTURE HERE IS RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR THE ITCZ E OF 84W. THE RIDGE 
WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE NW THROUGH SUN AND SHIFT EASTWARD 
AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN 
UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG E WINDS ALOFT AS SEEN 
IN THE SATELLITE-DERIVED CLOUD DRIFT WINDS ARE SEEN BETWEEN 95W 
AND 100W.

GAP WINDS...
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE GAP WIND AREAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. 
HOWEVER...ON SUN A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONE OF THE STRONGEST GALE WIND 
EVENTS THIS SEASON THUS FAR. 72 HR WINDWAVE PROG WILL REFLECT
THESE EXPECTED GALE WINDS.

$$
AGUIRRE