000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140357
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI DEC 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 7N77W 6N90W 10N120W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W 
AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A 
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 
SHEARING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SW ARIZONA WWD THROUGH 
27N125W 27N140W TO ANOTHER MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION W OF THE AREA NEAR 24N144W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW WAS SEEPING SWD INTO THE AREA N OF THE TROUGH AXIS NOTED 
ABOVE. FURTHER SOUTH A LARGE AREA OF WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
ALOFT IS LOCATED FROM 15N TO JUST S OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM BEYOND 140W EWD ACROSS SRN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO AND TEXAS. SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD 
DRIFT WINDS FROM THE GOES 11 SATELLITE INDICATED WIND SPEEDS OF 
85 TO 100 KNOTS W OF 125W AND LIGHTER E OF 125W. THIS FLOW WAS 
ADVECTING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NEWD TO 
THE SRN PLAINS AND FUELING ANOTHER WINTER STORM OVER THE AREA. 
THE FLOW AT THE UPPER LEVELS BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE DEEP 
TROPICS S OF 15N W OF 105W. AT THE SURFACE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC 
SURFACE FLOW WITH NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE LOCATED N 
OF 8N W OF 128W. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS.

E OF 105W...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER 
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE VICINITY OF 8N82W. WINDS ALOFT 
OVER THE PACIFIC ARE PREDOMINATELY SE TO S WITH THE STRONGEST 
FLOW AS MEASURED BY SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS BETWEEN 95W AND 
100W.

GAP WINDS...
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE GAP WIND AREAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. 
HOWEVER...ON SUN A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONE OF THE STRONGEST GALE WIND
EVENTS THIS SEASON THUS FAR. 

$$
COBB