000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 6N77W 7N90W 8N100W
10N109W 10N120W 9N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS
BETWEEN 111W-112W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
112W-116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF 
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W-125W.

...DISCUSSION...

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM SW TEXAS AND 
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH 25N105W 19N106W TO 8N107W. DRY UPPER AIR 
ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH N OF 14N ALONG 108W. ITCZ CONVECTION NEAR 
IS ENHANCED NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS ALSO 
TAPPING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ AND ADVECTING 
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO OVER THE TEXAS AND SE 
UNITED STATES. THIS MOISTURE EXTENDS OUT WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE 
TROUGH.

A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE NW PORTION WITH ITS 
AXIS E TO W ALONG 32N W OF 123W. TO THE S...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXTEND N ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 132W AND 
EXTENDS NNE THROUGH 17N125W TO 22N122W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD IS NOTED N OF 15N.

THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 110W IS DOMINATED BY A LONGWAVE RIDGE 
WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 11N75W 22N88W 31N100W. SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE 
HAS SPREAD NW OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA S 
OF 8N E OF 65W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY S OF 28N E OF 
94W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N133W TO 
20N114W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 110W.

GAP WINDS...N WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WITH WINDS POSSIBLY
REACHING 20-25 KT. THE STRENGTH OF THESE WINDS DEPENDS ON THE 
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE REMNANTS OF CARIBBEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE 
OLGA WHICH MAY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 18N...SO THERE 
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF THE NLY FLOW THROUGH THE 
GAPS. 
  
$$
AGUIRRE