000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED DEC 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...6N77W 8N105W 
9N115W 8N125W 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE POINT 11.5N102.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 7.2N124.7W.

...DISCUSSION...
TROUGH OVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 110W TO 120W. THE 
AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. A 
PLUME OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 
ITCZ CONVECTION IS FLOWING NORTH OVER MEXICO WITHIN 600 NM EAST 
OF THE TROUGH.  

THE AREA WEST OF 120W IS COVERED BY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
WITH MULTI LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WEST OF 125W SOUTH OF 
ABOUT 25N. THIS MOISTURE IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
BRINGING MOIST LOWER LEVEL AIR TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  
PREVIOUS ITCZ CONVECTION WEST OF THE AREA HAS ALSO CONTRIBUTED 
TO THIS MOISTURE.

EAST OF 95W IS A WEAK RIDGE WITH DRY AND CLOUD FREE AIR IN THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 105W. WEAK TROUGH IS 
ALONG THE LINE 15N111W TO 7N114W. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS...CARIBBEAN WINDS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 9N94W THROUGH ABOUT 24 HOURS THEN DIMINISH. 
NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 30 
HOURS.  NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH ABOUT 
36 HOURS THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH.

$$
LL