000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100359
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON DEC 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 7N78W 4N100W 
8N120W  9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 30 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N78W 5N83W AND WITHIN 15 NM OF 9.5N96W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG THE W COAST UNITED STATES 
WITH ITS AXIS N OF 12N ROUGHLY ALONG 125W. AN EMBEDDED DEEP 
LAYERED CYCLONE IS AT 29N119W AND IS SHIFTING SE WITH 
TIME...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ANALYZED AT 1014 MB. 
A NARROW BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND COMPLETELY THE 
CYCLONE.

A SECOND...MOSTLY MID LEVEL...CYCLONE IS FILLING NEAR 17N112W 
AND IS STILL ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE MERGES 
WITH A TROPICAL PLUME NOTED ROUGHLY WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 9N117W 32N99W...WITH THE PLUME FOR THE MOST TURNING E 
ACROSS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES...DESCRIBED 
BELOW.    

JUST TO THE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE
LIES ALONG 138W AND ORIGINATES FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
5S136W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS SPILLING ACROSS THE RIDGE OVER 
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 9N TO 23N W OF 128W. OTHERWISE DRY 
UPPER AIR IS NOTED N OF 10N BETWEEN 132W AND 118W. 

THE E PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY ANOTHER 
SHORTWAVE RIDGE ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 3N68W. 
THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 9N75W 30N91W THEN FLATTENS 
OUT NEAR 45N85W. AN UPPER ATLC TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN IS NOW ERODING THE RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SOME 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION NEAR 6N82W IS TRAPPED UNDER THE 
RIDGE WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 1N78W 9N85W. 
OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY SE OF LINE 29N87W 11N107W.    

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA LONG 
32N133W 17N120W.

GAP WINDS...STRONG CARIBBEAN WINDS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS. 

$$
NELSON