000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN DEC 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 7N78W 4N100W 
8N120W  9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 6N78W 6N83W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIES ALONG THE W COAST UNITED STATES 
WITH ITS AXIS N OF 12N ROUGHLY ALONG 125W. AN EMBEDDED DEEP 
LAYERED CYCLONE IS AT 29N119W AND IS SHIFTING SE WITH 
TIME...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ANALYZED AT 1014 MB. A 
SECOND...MOSTLY MID LEVEL...CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED NEAR 16N116W 
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE MERGES 
WITH A TROPICAL PLUME NOTED ROUGHLY WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 9N118W 32N98W...WITH THE PLUME TURNING E ACROSS AN UPPER 
RIDGE OVER THE SE UNITED STATES...DESCRIBED BELOW.    

JUST TO THE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE
LIES ALONG 140W AND ORIGINATES FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
8S135W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS SPILLING ACROSS THE RIDGE OVER 
THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 130W. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED 
N OF 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 120W. 

THE E PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS DOMINATED BY ANOTHER 
SHORTWAVE RIDGE ORIGINATING FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AT 5N72W. 
THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 9N75W 30N91W THEN FLATTENS 
OUT NEAR 45N85W. SOME DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM CONVECTION NEAR 6N82W 
IS TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
LINE 1N77W 10N85W. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DRY SE OF LINE 
30N87W 5N110W.      

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA LONG 
32N133W 17N120W.

GAP WINDS...STRONG CARIBBEAN WINDS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS. 

$$
NELSON