000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091625
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN DEC 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1245 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 6N83W  6N100W  9N130W  
9N140W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 16N116W. 

...DISCUSSION...
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 32N118W HAS LARGE 
AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTEND S ALONG 117W TO 1N114W.  WHILE TROUGH 
AXIS MAINTAINS COVERED REGION UNDER DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOLLOWS UPSTREAM UNDER LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE THAT FOLLOWS ALONG 138W.  JET CORE 125 KT ON W SIDE OF 
TROUGH APPROACHES BASE OF VORTEX WHICH SHOULD INTENSIFY 
SUBSIDENCE E OF 130W AND MAINTAIN MOIST AIR MASS TO THE WEST. 
ONLY SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NE ON LEE SIDE OF 
TROUGH AXIS INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.  

CYCLONIC VORTEX EXPECTED TO SHIFT NE AS CARIBBEAN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE WOULD BLOCK ANY FURTHER SRN INTRUSION. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1034 MB AT 40N135W HAS RIDGE 
EXTEND TO 18N116W MAINTAINING HEALTHY NE TRADES W OF 120W.  LOW 
PRES...REFLECTION OF VORTEX ALOFT...1013 MB AT 32N118W PRODUCING 
STRONG N-NE FLOW ALONG NRN LATITUDES OF E PAC WITH LARGE SWELLS 
COMING INTO PLAY N OF 20N.  LESSER SWELLS EXTEND THEIR REACH TO 
10N W OF 120W.

STRONG CARIBBEAN WINDS PUSHED BY INCOMING ATLC SURFACE TROUGH 
SPILL INTO E PAC THROUGH GAP AT GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH NEXT 48 
HRS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES