000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080350
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT DEC 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 6N77W 8N100W 12N115W 
8N130W 7N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 108W AND 
116W.  

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A TROUGH DOMINATING MOST OF THE AREA 
BETWEEN 100W AND 135W. UPSTREAM MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
WITH AXIS ALONG 141W/142W APPEARS TO BE AMPLIFYING WITH TIME
AND WAS IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DEEP 
TROPICS ALONG 138W. TWO WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS 
WERE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH. THE FIRST WAS NEAR 
13N127W AND THE SECOND NEAR 25N115W WHICH WAS OPENING UP AND 
ACCELERATING NEWD IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL REINFORCING 
TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND SWWD TO NEAR 
27N126W. THIS TROUGH WAS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS 
SLICING SEWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EXTENDED FROM THE NW 
PORTION OF BAJA TO 25N130W 27N140W AND WAS USHERING IN FRESH NLY 
FLOW AND 9 TO 12 FT SWELLS. MEANWHILE...SLY FLOW ON THE EAST 
SIDE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WAS MAINTAINING SOME CONVECTION 
ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CUTTING THROUGH THE ITCZ ALONG 117W. 
AS FAR AS SEAS GO...SHIPS REPORT MODERATE LARGE NLY SWELL ACROSS 
MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING. TRENDS SHOW THE SWELL 
DECAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH TODAY IN ALL BUT THE AREA N OF 25N.

OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG 
ROUGHLY 135W...AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. 
THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH 
NLY WINDS PICKING UP AS FAR SOUTH AS 23N W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
THIS WILL USHER IN A NEW ROUND OF LARGE NLY SWELL TO START TO 
PUSH INTO THE WATERS W OF NRN BAJA BY SUN. IN ADDITION...THE 
BUILDING RIDGE STRENGTHENS THE SURFACE HIGH NW OF THE 
AREA...WHICH IN TURN ENHANCES TRADE WIND FLOW. FURTHER 
E...STRONGER ELY FLOW THIS WEEKEND OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL 
PROMOTE FRESH ELY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BEGINNING IN 
ABOUT 12 HOURS AND LASTING THROUGH 48 HOURS. A SURGE OF SLY FLOW 
S OF THE EQUATOR WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS TO THE WEST OF THE 
GALAPAGOS SUN.

$$
COBB