000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070939
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI DEC 7 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 5N77W 8N90W 13N112W 
8N130W 8N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 5N78W 
6N81W AND 12N95W. OTHER MODERATE FROM 9N TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 
115W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 10N125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM 
WRN MEXICO WWD TO 140W. EMBEDDED CYCLONIC MID LEVEL CENTERS WERE 
LOCATED OVER ERN MEXICO NEAR 23N97W..23N119W AND A WEAKER ONE 
NEAR 27N142W. A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE 
WESTERLIES ALONG 130W N OF 35N WAS MOVING SE. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE WAS ALONG 140W EXTENDING S AND SE TO 
18N123W AND PRODUCING NE TRADES 20 KT S OF 22N W OF 130W. LATEST 
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A GOOD SURGE OF COLD AIR HEADING S ALONG 
130W BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE AREA. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST WERE SE TO S 5 TO 10 KT. GAP WINDS ARE 
MOSTLY LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT 
ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY. A LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL 9 TO 11 FT 
COVERS MOST OF THE AREA N OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF 105W. 

LATER DAY 1 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES WILL 
LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ALONG 120W S OF 30N AND INTERCEPT THE 
CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 23N119W AND MOVE IT NWD. THE SHORTWAVE WILL 
ALSO WEAKEN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 120W. ON THE SURFACE LATER 
DAY 1 THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO 117W. THE PACIFIC 
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ALONG 
135W. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY N AND NE WINDS W OF 120W OF 20 
TO 25 KT AND NLY SWELL TO 10 FT. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
REMAIN LIGHT SWLY DUE TO WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. 
GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL S AND SE WINDS REMAIN 
10 TO 15 KT. THE LARGE NWLY SWELL AREA WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR 
AND MEET THE SELY SWELL S OF 6S BETWEEN 100W AND 120W THAT IS 
PROPOGATING NWLY.

FOR DAY 2 THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES WILL 
CONTINUE TO LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BETWEEN 105W AND 125W N OF 
20N. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA. 
ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 A MODERATELY STRONG PACIFIC RIDGE WILL 
EXTEND SE OVER THE AREA TO 15N105W. NE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT 
WILL CONTINUE S OF 25N W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST 
BECOME NWLY 15 TO 20 KT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. GAP WINDS 
INCREASE THROUGH PAPAGAYO TO 20 KT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN. CROSS EQUATORIAL SE WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF 5N W 
OF 110W.

$$
RRG