000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 6 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS ALONG 7N77W 8N98W 10N110W 
8N120W 8N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 25 NM 
OF A LINE FROM 7N81W TO 7N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N111W TO 7N118W 
TO 9N124W.

...DISCUSSION...

A LARGE BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA TONIGHT. EMBEDDED 
IN THE RIDGE ARE SEVERAL CYCLONIC SWIRLS..THE STRONGEST NEAR 
23N117W MOVING S 10 KT. ANOTHER NEAR 12N135W NEARLY STATIONARY 
AND A THIRD NEAR 23N140W MOVING WNW 15 KT. A FOURTH ONE INLAND 
OVER SRN MEXICO NEAR 23N103W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
WESTERLIES AND MOVING W 5 TO 10 KT. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT THE 
PACIFIC HIGH 1022 MB IS NEAR 27N134W AND EXTENDS E TO 120W. THE 
RIDGE IS PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 20 KT W OF 125W. WINDS ALONG THE 
BAJA COAST ARE LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT. GAP WINDS ARE 
ALSO LIGHT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 20 KT A NOTED S OF 7N 
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY AND FROM AN 
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS. A LARGE AREA OF NWLY SWELL TO 15 FT 
COVERS AN AREA N OF 8N W OF 120W. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPOGATE SE AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY CENTERED NEAR 
25N132W WILL ACT AS A RINGMASTER WORKING THE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATIONS AROUND IN A CLOCKWISE FASHION. THUS THE STRONG ONE 
MOVES TO 21N119W WHILE THE SECOND ONE MOVES TO 13N139W AND THE 
THIRD ONE DRIFTS N TO NEAR 25N140W. STRONG WESTERLIES JUST N OF 
30N WILL KEPT AT BAY BY THE RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE WITH THE CENTER 1022 MB 
NEARLY STATIONARY. LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE WINDWISE BUT THE 
LARGE NW SWELL OF 12 FT WILL APPROACH THE BAJA PACIFIC COAST. 

FOR DAY 2 A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES WILL DIVE 
SE TO SRN CA. THIS LOWERS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ALONG 120W. THE 
STRONG CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 21N119W BEGINS TO MOVE NWD TO 
22N130W..INFLUENCED BY THIS HEIGHT CHANGE. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE 
DRIFTS NW AND BEGINS TO BULGE NWD ALONG 140W. ON THE SURFACE 
DAY  2 THE PACIFIC HIGH WILL REPOSITION ITSELF NW OF THE AREA AS 
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES NW BUT STRENGTHEN SOME THUS NE WINDS 
INCREASE N OF 20N W OF 120W TO 20 KT. A FRONT SLIPS SE TO NEAR 
30N117W 25N120W WITH WINDS TO 20 KT. THE LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL 
OF 9 TO 11 FT WILL COVER AN AREA N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 105W 
AND 125W. SOME POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SE WINDS NEAR EQUATOR TO 5N 
W OF 100W PROBABLY DUE TO STRENGTHENING OF A LARGE RIDGE OVER 
THE S PACIFIC E OF 120W. OTHERWISE GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT EXCEPT 
FOR POSSIBLY A SLIGHT INCREASE THROUGH PAPAGAYO TO 20 KT.  

$$
RRG