000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED DEC 5 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 9N84W 10N90W 8N97W 
10N110W 8N115W 8N126W 5N135W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS FROM 116W TO 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY SEVERAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS SPREAD 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FOUR DISTINCT 
UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAR 21N103W...26N117W...22N135W AND 11N136W. AS 
A RESULT...UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN ARE RELATIVELY 
LIGHT...BROKEN UP BY NUMEROUS INFLECTION POINTS IN THE WIND FIELD. 
THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS DISPLACED N OF THE AREA. THE LIGHT WINDS WOULD
NORMALLY FAVOR STRONG ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS DURING HURRICANE 
SEASON...BUT ALL WE ARE SEEING CURRENTLY IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION BETWEEN 115W AND 133W.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 14N108W TO 
7N110W. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATING NW PORTION OF THE AREA SHOULD 
SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIPS S  
OF 30N FRI.

LARGE NW SWELLS OF UP TO 18 FT OBSERVED OVER MOST OF THE AREA...NW OF
A LINE FROM 26N113W TO EQ132W. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE AND 
SUBSIDE THROUGH 48 HOURS...IMPACTING MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE 
EQUATOR AND WEST OF 100W. 

$$
MUNDELL