000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED DEC 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...9N84W 8N100W 
9N110W 7N120W 8N126W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 70 NM OF 
6N110W.  

...DISCUSSION...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA WITH THE AXIS THROUGH 32N117W TO 27N140W SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN AS CUT-OFF LOW NEAR 23N135W DRIFTS NW OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS. ANOTHER CUT-OFF FEATURE IS SITUATED OFF THE COAST OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 25N117W AND IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT S BEFORE 
NEXT PULSE APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST PUSHES THE LOW OVER 
NW MEXICO ON SAT. OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW NEAR 20N103W...JUST E OF 
MANZANILLO...IS GENERATING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS/MOISTURE 
OVER MOST OF CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW WAS NOTED SE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE SPREADING FROM 
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 100W INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH IS SITUATED 
OVER THE DEEP TROPICS FROM 14N108W TO 7N110W. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
DOMINATING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN 
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS NEXT COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE 
NORTHERN AREA ON FRI.

THIS MORNING'S 0410Z ASCAT HI/RES OVERPASS SUGGESTED GAP WINDS 
MAINTAINING STRENGTH OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
AREA...HOWEVER...THE AREAL COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. 
GULF WINDS SHOULD DROP TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 
HOURS.

HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS OF UP TO 18 FT OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN 
REGION AREA ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SE AND SUBSIDE THROUGH 48 
HOURS...IMPACTING MOST OF THE AREA NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST 
OF 100W. 

$$
ROBERTS