000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE DEC 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...7N77W 6N81W 
7N89W 6N95W 8N110W 5N140W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N 
BETWEEN 107W-120W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO WELL NW OF 
THE AREA. A NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS E OF THE BROAD 
TROUGH WITH AXIS THROUGH 25N140W TO 32N130W. A NARROW UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 30N116W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 25N131W 
ALONG 20N134W TO A THIRD UPPER LOW NEAR 12N133W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS SE OF THE THIS UPPER TROUGH NEAR 20N124W DOMINATING THE 
AREA FROM 12N-25N BETWEEN 105W-127W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE EXTREME NW 
PART OF THE AREA BECOMING INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED WITH ONLY 
WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60-90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 
19N107W. RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE 
FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH TO 10N ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 
29N128W. 

GAP WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THESE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST WINDS TO DROP TO LESS THAN 20 KT WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

NW TO N WINDS OF 20 KT OVER THE N PORTION OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 20 
KT WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. 

LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS OF UP TO 25 FT OBSERVED OVER THE NW PART 
OF THE AREA WILL SPREAD SE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IMPACT MOST OF 
THE AREA NORTH OF THE EQUATOR AND WEST OF 115W. 

$$
PAW