000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...6N77W 6N105W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FOLLOWING POINTS 7.2N98W AND 6.4N100.5W AND 6.7N103.3N. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE 
POINT 9.4N1212W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 75 NM OF 6.4N125W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA WEST OF 125W WITH AN AXIS 
ALONG THE LINE 28N124W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 131W. AN EMBEDDED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 16N132W. A LARGE AREA IF 
CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ...MENTIONED IN THE ITCZ SECTION...
IS THE SOURCE OF A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE TROUGH AXIS EASTWARD 
TO 114W. WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO A LINE 32N128W 20N140W THE 
AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. NW OF 
THIS LINE MOISTURE AND SOME BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED AND 
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED WELL 
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

DRY AND CLOUD FREE AIR IS OBSERVED E OF 115W SOUTH OF A LINE 
20N100W TO 17N115W EXCEPT FOR A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ.

LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA AND COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 10N EAST OF THE 
ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH...ABOUT 122W.

SURFACE...
COLD FRONT IS ALONG LINE 32N137W 29N140W. GALE CONDITION ARE 
NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE N OF 
10N WEST OF 108W MODERATE RIDGE IS ANALYZED.  REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA IS A BROAD TROUGH.

GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD INCREASE TO NEAR 30 
KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS THEN SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 20 KT THEN LESS THAN 
20 KT MIDDAY TUESDAY.

LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE 
AREA WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH 48 HOURS WHEN THEY WILL COVER 
MOST OF THE AREA WEST OF 115W NORTH OF THE ITCZ.

$$
LL