000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 3 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 4N77W 8N86W 6N101W 7N120W 6N130W 8N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 7N97W 6N99W 7N101W 7N102W AND 
6N103W. ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 11N118W AND 8N129W. SCATTERED 
STRONG ALONG A LINE FROM 9N119W TO 9N123W TO 5N127W.

...DISCUSSION...

TWO STRONG FEATURES DOMINATE THE MID LEVELS TONIGHT. ONE IS 
TROUGH NW OF THE AREA WHICH IS MOVING ENE AND LOWERING MID LEVEL 
HEIGHTS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION..AND THE OTHER IS A 
FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE ALONG 20N E OF 125W. THE RIDGE EXTENDS NWD 
ALONG THE WRN CONUS AND KEEP THE STRONG TROUGH AWAY FROM OUR 
REGION. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROUGH IS TIGHTENING THE PRES 
GRADIENT OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA RESULTING IN GALE 
CONDITIONS. WINDS TO 40 KT AND SEAS TO 21 FT HAVE BEEN REPORTED. 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SRN CA AREA SW TO 15N140W AND 
IS PRODUCING NE WINDS TO 20 KT FROM LOWER BAJA SW TO 10N130W. 
GAP WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SSMI SHOWS WINDS TO 15 KT THROUGH 
PAPAGAYO. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS ARE MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT E OF 
110W ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY. THERE IS AN AREA BETWEEN 5N AND 
15N W OF 115W WHERE SE WINDS ARE CONVERGING WITH NE WINDS AROUND 
THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND SSMI SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT IN THIS REGION. 

LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE NW TO CENTER ITSELF 
OVER BAJA AND DIFLECT THE STRONG TROUGH TO THE NW. ON THE 
SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NW 
CORNER OF THE AREA BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTY 25 TO 35 KT. LARGE 
SWELL TO 27 FT WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS AREA. THE PACIFIC RIDGE 
WILL CHANGE LITTLE. GAP WINDS INCREASE SOME IN TEHUANTEPEC TO 20 
KT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WRN GULF. PAPAGAYO WINDS 
OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS MOSTLY 10 TO 
15 KT.

FOR DAY 2 THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WWD TO NEAR 
26N125W. WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM THE STRONG SWLY FLOW NW OF THE 
RIDGE WILL WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE RIDGE THEN MOVE S OVER NRN 
MEXICO. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL BAJA. THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES WWD. 
A 1030 MB HIGH CENTER WILL ANCHOR THE RIDGE NEAR 30N128W AND 
MAINTAIN NE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT. WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE 
BAJA COAST WILL REMAIN LIGHT NLY WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENT. GAP 
WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC INCREASE TO 25 KT BUT NO GALE 
CONDITION IS EXPECTED. LITTLE CHANGE TO PAPAGAYO WINDS. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS INCREASE S OF 5N E OF 100W TO 20 KT 
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. LONG PERIOD NWLY SWELL 15 TO 
20 FT WILL PROPOGATE SSE OVER THE REGION N OF 15N W OF 125W. 

$$
RRG