000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300921
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N76W 9N82W 5N95W 14N114W 9N127W 8N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 6N82W 7N87W 6N92W 6N93W AND 
5N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF 14N107W AND 21N109W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 12N118W 11N123W 9N125W 9N126W AND 9N131W. 

SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG A LINE FROM 15N120W TO 20N115W 
TO 24N114W.

...DISCUSSION...

LARGE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 25N126W HAS BEEN STATIONARY PAST 
FEW HRS. MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 143W AND ANOTHER OVER CENTRAL 
MEXICO EWD. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT WEAK LOW PRES NEAR 20N118W 
MOVING NNE. PACIFIC RIDGE ALONG 140W WITH NE TRADES TO 20 KT W 
OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ELY 10 TO 15 KT INCREASE W 
OF 112W TO SELY 20 KT. GAP WINDS 20 KT POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 25 KT 
IN TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO AREAS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS TO 
20 KT W OF 115W ACCORDING TO SSMI IMAGERY. 

LATER DAY 1 FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE IN WESTERLIES DIVING SE 
ALONG CA COAST WILL INFLUENCE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER OVER OUR 
REGION AND BEGIN TO LIFT IT NE. LITTLE CHANGE TO MID LEVEL RIDGE 
POSITIONS. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 LOW PRES STRENGTHENS SOME 
AS IT MOVES NNE TO NEAR 25N116W. WINDS 20 TO 25 KT OVER SE 
SEMICIRCLE WITH 180 NM OF CENTER. OTHERWISE PACIFIC RIDGE 
WEAKENS AND NE TRADES DIMINISH TO 15 KT. GAP WINDS STILL GUSTY 
TO 25 KT WITH HIGH PRES OVER GULF AND CARIBBEAN. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS COULD INCREASE SOME TO 20 KT E OF 85W IF 
GFS MODEL CORRECT WITH LOW PRES OFF COLOMBIAN COAST. OTHERWISE 
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 

FOR DAY 2 OLD CLOSED OFF MID LEVEL LOW WEAKENS RAPIDLY AND LIFTS 
NE AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ALONG 110W. MID LEVEL 
RIDGE ALONG 140W WEAKENING AS MID LEVEL FLOW BECOME MORE WLY. 
SOME SORT OF A SRN BRANCH TO THE WESTERLIES TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE 
S OF 20N WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG 135W MOVING ENE. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 2 PACIFIC RIDGE SHIFTS E TO NEAR 28N128W. PRES 
GRADIENT WEAK OVER TRADES REGION AND WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT. NW 
WINDS ALONG UPPER BAJA COAST STILL GUSTY TO 20 KT OTHERWISE 
WINDS S OF PT EUGENIO W TO NW 5 TO 10 KT. GAP WINDS WEAKEN SOME 
BUT STILL TO 20 KT. CROSS EQUATORIAL WINDS MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT.
  
$$
RRG