000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290404
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2130 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...9N78W 10N110W 14N118W 9N130W 
7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180-240 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 105W.  

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 110W AND 
115W. 

...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 
26N125W. FEATURE WAS RETROGRADING SLOWLY WWD. ASSOCIATED TROUGH 
DOMINATED THE AREA N OF 16N BETWEEN 115W AND 140W. UPSTREAM 
ANTICYCLONE HAS RETROGRADED NWWD TO NEAR 32N144W WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED RIDGE MOVING W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE TO 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED WITHIN THE SRN PERIPHERY 
OF THE RIDGE/W OF 140W AND WAS EXTENDING EWD AND WRAPPING AROUND 
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE BASE OF THE 
TROUGH. 

FLAT TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 130W EXTENDED 
NWD TO 15N AND DOMINATED THE FLOW OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL E 
PACIFIC W OF 110W. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST WAS ROUNDING THE 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE GENERALLY THROUGH 10N135W 15N125W THEN 
SPLIT WITH ONE BRANCH DIVING ESEWD TO 5N103W...WHILE THE OTHER 
BRANCH TURNED NWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SW CONUS. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS EXCEEDING 100 KT 
ALONG 14N-15N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
WAS EVIDENT IN TWO DISTINCT AREAS...THE FIRST OVER THE DEEP 
TROPICS FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 115W AND 135W WITH ENHANCED 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ IN THAT AREA...AND THE SECOND AREA 
FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 100W AND 115W ENCOMPASSING NW MEXICO AND 
BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH WAS ENHANCING SOME DEEP CONVECTION ALONG A 
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 22N115W 14N120W 9N124W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE AREA NW OF 
THE SURFACE TROUGH...GENERALLY N OF 20N W OF 120W.

THOUGH THERE WERE NO RECENT QUIKSCAT PASSES NEAR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED MARKEDLY IN THE AREA TO 
20 TO 25 KT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 
KT RANGE...POSSIBLY REACHING 30 KT IN BRIEF PULSES THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. 

A 2340 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT WINDS IN THE AREA FROM 
9N TO 12N EAST OF 92W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 20 KT. 
  
$$
COBB