000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281014
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0915 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...8N83W 9N90W 8N100W 10N118W 
7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS 
92W-105W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS 121W-133W. 

...DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 25N123W. 
ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTEND TO 20N140W WITH DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS 
WITHIN 240 NM NW OF TROUGH.  JET CORE OF 80 KT AROUND BASE OF 
VORTEX FLATTENING CREST OF RIDGE S OF ITCZ MAKING WIND FLOW 
ALMOST ZONAL FROM 9N-17N W OF 120W.  SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDING NWD INTO SW CONUS.  
STRONG DIFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND VORTEX 
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF SURFACE 
TROUGH ALONG 25N120W 11N125W. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER WELL N OF AREA HAS RIDGE 
EXTENDING OVER MOST OF REGION N OF ITCZ W OF 115W.  NE TRADES N 
OF 10N W OF 120W WEAKEN AS HIGH PRES CENTER MOVES FURTHER NE BUT 
LARGE SWELL TRAIN REMAIN AFFECTING AREA THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS HAVE DIMINISH AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN 6 HR BUT STILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLE 
STRONG AT 20-30 KT BY END OF PERIOD.  GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS 
APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED AS CARIBBEAN RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHOULD 
START ABATING GRADUALLY THROUGH NEXT 48 HR.
  
$$
WALLY BARNES