000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272212
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2145 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...8N83W 8N107W 9N119W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 90W AND 91W...
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 
98W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
NEAR 28N122W. ASSOCIATED TROUGH COVERED THE AREA FROM 15N TO 35N 
BETWEEN 115W AND 133W. UPSTREAM ANTICYCLONE/RIDGE NEAR 31N141W
WAS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE SRN 
PERIPHERY AND A SMALL SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 21N141W.
AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST WAS ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL 
CLOUDS GENERALLY WITHIN THE AREA S OF 20N W OF 110W AND ALSO N 
OF 20N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH...
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WAS NOTED ALONG 8N123W 15N112W
AND WAS DISCONNECTED FROM ANOTHER RIDGE OVER N-CENTRAL MEXICO 
EXTENDING NWD INTO THE SW CONUS.  

SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 20N117W 11N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED E OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 114W AND 118W. 

THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE LAST SEVERAL ASCAT PASSES 
MISSED THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HOWEVER A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN 
S6ES REPORTED NLY WINDS OF 26 KT AT 1800 UTC WHILE LOCATED
150 NM SSE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. IT IS BELIEVED THAT 
HIGHER WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THESE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING. 

WIND SPEEDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 
20 TO 25 KT AT AND PEAK WITHIN 48 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE 
BUILDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FORCING STRONG WINDS AGAINST 
MOUNTAIN GAPS IN CENTRAL AMERICA.
  
$$
COBB