000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262205
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AXIS ALONG 8N79W 6N86W 10N120W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 15 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF LINE 7N78W 7N87W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 9N110W AND WITHIN 
60 NM OF 8N131W.  

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF 12N105W.

...DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE BUT AMPLIFIED PATTERN DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS 
OF THE E PAC WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXTENDING 
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FIRST TROUGH OVER THE NW PORTION 
EXTENDS ALONG 32N121W INTO AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 25N125W WITH 
THE TROUGH CONTINUING S TO A BASE AT 16N130W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED W OF THE CYCLONE AND THE TROUGH. WELL TO THE 
NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AN UPPER RIDGE IS COLLAPSING SE WITH 
UPPER MOISTURE NOW SPILLING OVER THE AREA NW OF LINE 27N140W 
32N130W. FURTHER E...THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHEARING OUT 
TO THE NE ALONG 32N89W 22N98W THROUGH A SMALL UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 
15N106W WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING SSE TO A BASE AT 3N107W. DRY 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WITHIN 480 NM W OF LINE 30N90W 
20N97W 9N110W.

BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS AN TROPICAL UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS 
N ACROSS THE EQUATOR AT 134W...AND CONTINUES NE ALONG 14N120W TO 
A CREST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE CONUS. AXIS OF 
SUBTROPICAL JTST ALONG 17N140W EWD ALONG 15N THEN TURNS NEWD 
THROUGH 20N123W THROUGH NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SW CONUS.
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED SPEEDS OF 90-100 KT NEAR 140W 
AND 70-80 KT ELSEWHERE. JTST WAS ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION W OF THE AREA NEAR 
13N145W AND BETWEEN 122W AND 137W NEWD OVER THE RIDGE WITHIN 300 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE 14N140W 15N125W TO BEYOND 35N105W. UPPER 
SW FLOW DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 
100W...WITH VERY DRY UPPER AIR SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION TO A 
VERY THIN LINE DESCRIBED ABOVE.   

AT THE LOW LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 12N W 
OF 110W WITH A 1024 MB CENTER N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N133W.

GAP WINDS...NE WINDS EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 20 KT WITH FETCH 
LIMITING SEAS HEIGHTS TO LESS THAN TO 8 FT OVER PAC WATERS IN 
AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A 1628 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS INDICATED NLY WINDS OF 20 
KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE FURTHER AND REACH GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE 
AND CONTINUE IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE THROUGH 48 HOURS.
  
$$
COBB