000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON NOV 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...9N84W 10N120W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

AMPLIFIED PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES. FIRST STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 
DIGGING SWD OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM 
A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 28N129W AND SWWD THROUGH 
24N134W 23N140W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED IN THE 
WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND 
CUT OFF AND REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 
A CUT OFF LOW LIFTING NEWD OVER N-CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL 
MEXICO TO A BASE NEAR 10N109W. MODEST SUBSIDENCE WAS WRAPPING 
AROUND THE CORE OF THE TROUGH N OF 20N. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED 
LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA BY 48 HOURS.  

THE RIDGE BETWEEN THE ABOVE TROUGHS WITH AXIS THROUGH 32N113W 
TO 12N122W. THE RIDGE IS DIFLUENT IN NATURE WITH A BROAD AREA OF 
OVERCAST MULTI-LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING AN AREA WITHIN 360 NM W OF 
THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS IS SPREADING EWD OVER 
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST WAS 
SLICING ACROSS THE BASE OF THE WESTERN TROUGH NEAR 22N140W ENEWD 
THROUGH 24N130W AND WEAKENED IN THE FACE OF THE RIDGE NEAR BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS WERE IN THE 80-90 KT RANGE. 

A BROAD AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL S-SW FLOW COVERED THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF THE TROUGH OVER MEXICO IN AN AREA 
DEFINED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE UPPER FLOW WAS 
DIFLUENT OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
AND WAS MAINTAINING SOME CONVECTION OVER THE AREA BROUGHT ABOUT 
BY A COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE 
EASTERLY FLOW. 

AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 112W WITH A 
STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N134W. THE 
MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS 
GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. GAP WINDS WILL BEGIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION IN 
24 HOURS AND INCREASE FURTHER...REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN 
THE 36-48 HOUR TIMEFRAME AND THEREFORE USHERING IN THE FOURTH 
GALE EVENT THIS COOL SEASON. 
  
$$
COBB