000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.
 
...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...6N77W 9N105W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FOLLOWING POINTS 
10N106W AND 9N112.5W AND 10N125.5W AND 7.3N129W AND 14.8N137W.

...DISCUSSION...

AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A 
SERIES OF TROUGHS AND RIDGES. FIRST STRONG SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE 
NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA AND EXTENDS FROM A DEVELOPING CUT OFF 
CIRCULATION NEAR 30N130W AND SWWD THROUGH 26N133W 25N140W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED IN THE WAKE OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND 
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A CUT OFF 
LOW OVER N-CENTRAL TEXAS SWD THROUGH CENTRAL MEXICO TO A BASE 
NEAR 10N107W. SOME SUBSIDENCE WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE CORE OF 
THE TROUGH N OF 23N. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED LIFT SLOWLY NEWD 
AWAY FROM THE AREA. 

THE RIDGE BETWEEN THE ABOVE TROUGHS IS DIFLUENT IN NATURE WITH A 
BROAD AREA OF OVERCAST MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS COVERING AN AREA 350 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE THROUGH 32N117W 25N121W 18N130W. THIS 
AREA OF CLOUDINESS IS MOVING EAST...SPREADING OVER THE BAJA 
PENINSULA. AXIS OF SUBTROPICAL JTST WAS SLICING THROUGH THE BASE 
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH NEAR 23N140W ENEWD THROUGH 25N130W AND 
WEAKENED IN THE FACE OF THE RIDGE NEAR 30N117W. SATELLITE 
DERIVED WINDS WERE IN THE 80-100 KT RANGE. 

A BROAD AREA OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL S-SW FLOW COVERED THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA E OF THE TROUGH OVER MEXICO IN AN AREA 
DEFINED BY MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. THE UPPER FLOW WAS 
DIFLUENT OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS
AND WAS MAINTAINING SOME CONVECTION OVER THE AREA BROUGHT ABOUT 
BY UPSLOPE ELY FLOW. 

AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 115W WITH A 
STATIONARY 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N133W. 
A 1510 UTC ASCAT AND PARTIAL 1226 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 
15-20 KT WINDS IN GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS WILL 
BEGIN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION IN ABOUT 30 
HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE BY 48 HOURS. 

$$
COBB