000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N78W 6N93W 9N102W 8N110W 9N119W 9N125W 11N136W 
10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 5N78W 7N79W AND 
9N109W. ISOLATED STRONG NEAR 13N91W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 
10N113W 11N117W 11N120W AND 9N123W. AREA OF MODERATE WITHIN 30 
NM OF 11N133W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTLE CHANGES TAKING PLACE TONIGHT IN THE MID LEVELS. LARGE 
AMPLITUDE RIDGE NARROWING AND MOVING SLOWLY EWD. JET STREAM OVER 
CENTRAL PACIFIC STILL DIGGING SE NEAR 30N150W BUT GRADUALLY 
TURNING MORE WLY HELPING MOVE RIDGE. STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER 
WRN CONUS TONIGHT WITH POOL OF COLD AIR SINKING S OVER NW BAJA 
LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS N OF 20N E OF 120W. ON THE SURFACE 
TONIGHT THE PACIFIC RIDGE IS WEAKER..GIVEN THE WEAKENING SUPPORT 
ALOFT..THUS TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15 TO 20 KT BETWEEN 12N 
AND 18N W OF 130W. WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST HAVE INCREASED 
SOME TONIGHT AS SURFACE PRES LOWERS OVER NW MEXICO IN RESPONSE 
TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THAT REGION. GAP WINDS 
THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC ARE 15 TO 20 KT ACCORDING TO SSMI. NO 
QUIKSCAT PASS. GAP WINDS W OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA TONIGHT NE 15 
KT ACCORDING TO ASCT IMAGERY. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS MOSTLY 
LIGHT.

LATER DAY 1 STRONG SHORTWAVE ALONG 110W N OF 24N MOVING ESE 
STILL LOWERING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS N OF 18N E OF 120W. MID LEVEL 
RIDGE MOVES E TO NEAR 123W AS SHORTWAVES IN WLY FLOW BATTER THE 
RIDGE FROM THE W. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 WINDS OVER THE NRN 
PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AS 
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER NRN MEXICO AND THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE ALONG 130W. OTHERWISE TRADES REMAIN ABOUT THE 
SAME. GAP WINDS WEAKEN AS HIGH PRES E OF 90W MOVES EWD. CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS REMAIN 10 TO 15 KT. 

FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL RIDGE LOSSES IT'S AMPLITUDE AND MOVES EWD TO 
ALONG 115W. STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES E TO 105W OVER NRN MEXICO 
WHILE TWO SHORTWAVES IN THE WLY FLOW PHASE TOGETHER FORMING A 
LARGER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NRN CA SW TO 20N135W. ON THE 
SURFACE DAY 2 SURFACE PRESSURE RISE OVER NRN MEXICO AND WINDS 
DECREASE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. PACIFIC RIDGE WEAK WITH 
1022 MB CENTER NEAR 31N135W. TRADES MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST 5 TO 10 KT. GAP WINDS NEAR 15 KT W OF 
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. CROSS EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS REMAIN 10 
TO 15 KT AS THE ITCZ REMAINS QUIET. 

$$
RRG