000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240401
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  8N83W  9N120W  11N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 114W AND WITHIN 
120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 120W TO 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CREST AT 32N128W WITH AXIS ALONG 128W 
ADVECTING PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NE ON ITS UPSTREAM SIDE 
WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION JUST ENCROACHING E 
OF 140W N OF ITCZ.  DOWNSTREAM...WIDE LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS 
FROM 32N110W TO 14N102W DOMINATES FLOW AS FAR EAST AS 95W.  
WEAK JET CORE DIGS SE ALONG W SIDE OF TROUGH WITH MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE ALONG TROUGH BASE LIMITING CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ E OF 
105W. 

W FLOW OVER MUCH OF AREA FROM 95W-90W THEN SHIFT SW BRINGING 
MOISTURE INTO GULF OF MEXICO.  QUICK MOVING HIGH PRES OVER GULF 
LACK UPLIFTING MECHANICS TO PRODUCE CONVECTION.  WEAK COLD FRONT 
ALONG YUCATAN PASSAGE/NWRN CARIBBEAN MIGHT BE MORE ACTIVE WITH  
SUCH MOISTURE.  

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WINDS ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP 
EXPECTED TO LAST 24 HR MORE AS HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO 
TURNS FLOW MORE EASTERLY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR OVER 48 HRS AS FRONT STALLS OVER NW 
CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING TIGHT GRADIENT THERE.

NE TRADES DIMINISH IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE AS HIGH PRES OVER E 
PAC WEAKENS.  

$$
WALLY BARNES