000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232210
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  8N78W  9N100W  9N120W  10N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 107W.  

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CREST AT 32N130W WITH AXIS ALONG 128W 
ADVECTING PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NE ON ITS UPSTREAM SIDE 
WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING CONVECTION JUST W OF 140W 
ENTERING E PAC WATERS.  DOWNSTREAM...WIDE LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH 
AXIS ALONG 107W DOMINATES FLOW AS FAR EAST AS 97W.  WEAK JET 
CORE DIGS SE ALONG W SIDE OF TROUGH WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE 
ALONG TROUGH BASE LIMITING CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ E OF 107W. 

W FLOW OVER MUCH OF AREA FROM 97W-90W THEN SHIFT SW BRINGING 
MOISTURE INTO GULF OF MEXICO.  QUICK MOVING HIGH PRES OVER GULF 
LACK UPLIFTING MECHANICS TO PRODUCE CONVECTION.  WEAK COLD FRONT 
ALONG YUCATAN PASSAGE/NWRN CARIBBEAN MIGHT BE MORE ACTIVE WITH  
SUCH MOISTURE.  

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG WINDS ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP 
EXPECTED TO LAST 24-30 HR MORE AS HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO 
TURNS FLOW MORE EASTERLY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WINDS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR OVER 48 HRS AS FRONT STALLS OVER NW 
CARIBBEAN MAINTAINING TIGHT GRADIENT THERE. 

$$
WALLY BARNES