000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 91W HAS BEEN DROPPED DUE TO A 
LACK OF SUPPORT FROM SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N78W 9N110W 9N130W 11N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30NM N AND 90NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
96W-103W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 109W-123W...AND BETWEEN 127W-132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
MODEST SFC RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 
10N...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA IS ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER 
SE OVER THE NW PORTION. THE SFC RIDGING WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH 
SAT AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE NW PORTION. A 
SERIES OF MODERATE TO STRONG NW SWELL EVENTS WILL AFFECT THE 
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. 

ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA...GENERALLY ALONG 130W N OF 13N...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH 
JUST E AND NE OF HAWAII. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES 
IS GENERATING MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS N OF 7N W 
OF 133W. UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 
EXTENDING S THROUGH BAJA AND WRN MAINLAND MEXICO. 

E OF 105W...
BROAD SFC TROUGHING DOMINATES THE AREA...WITH MODERATE CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS GENERALLY S OF 9N WITH LIGHTER AND MORE 
VARIABLE WINDS TO THE N OF 9N. THE EXCEPTION IS THE DEVELOPING 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS 20-25 KT WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON THEN RELAX INTO SUN. 20 KT NE/E 
WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. 

ALOFT...UPPER W TO SW FLOW IS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 95W S 
OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 
FLOW BENDS MORE SLY OVER THE FAR NE PAC AHEAD OF AN UPPER RIDGE 
OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN. UPPER CONFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES 
IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD DRY/STABLE MID TO UPPER AIR OVER MUCH 
OF THE AREA...ASIDE FROM MOISTURE NOTED OVER THE ITCZ ACTIVITY 
AND JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. 

$$
WILLIS