000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222225
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 7N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.  WAVE 
REMAINS ILL DEFINED AND MAY BE DROPPED FROM MAP SOON.  NO 
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION NOTED. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N78W  8N100W  9N125W  8N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS FROM 78W-87W.  SIMILAR ACTIVITY 
WITHIN 30 NM N AND 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 96W-100W...AND WITHIN 60 
NM OF AXIS W OF 110W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 138W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE ALONG 133W BRING FRESH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO E 
PAC ON ITS 70 KT JET CORE NOW RUNNING OVER ITS CREST.  WINDS DIG 
SE INTO LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N107W TO 12N120W WITH 
CONVERGING WIND BRINGING AIR MASS SUBSIDENCE ALONG TROUGH AXIS.  
NARROW SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS NE ALONG TROUGH E SIDE 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO SE TEXAS.  OTHERWISE AREA REMAINS 
FAIRLY DRY.  LAST BINGE OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
...NICARAGUA AND EASTWARD N OF 6N.  

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB AT 35N132W HAS RIDGE 
DOMINATE MUCH OF AREA N OF 10N PRODUCING MODERATE NE TRADES OVER 
FROM 10N-20N W OF 127W.  COLD FRONT APPROACHING FAR NW PORTION 
OF AREA ALLOWS WINDS TO PICK UP N OF 26N W OF 135W.  MODERATE TO 
LARGE SWELL TRAINS ENCROACH S INTO E PAC WATERS AS FAR S AS 20N 
W OF 115W.

WITH HIGH PRES BUILD UP BEHIND GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT... 
STRONG N WINDS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WITHIN NEXT 18 HRS.  EVENT SHOULD REACH 20-25 KT AND LAST VERY 
LITTLE AS HIGH PRES MOVES E VERY QUICKLY.  LIKEWISE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO SHOULD INCREASE AS SAME COLD FRONT REACHES NW CARIBBEAN 
TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN THAT BASIN. 

$$
WALLY BARNES