000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W N OF 7N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE 
REMAINS ILL DEFINED OVER THE NE PAC AND MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED 
FROM THE MAP SOON. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION NOTED. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N78W 9N90W 8N110W 7N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 78W-86W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 91W-99W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 121W.

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 
138W-140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
MODEST SFC RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 
10N...PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA IS 
ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER SE/S TO NEAR 20 KT N OF 26N W OF 135W. 
THE SFC RIDGING WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS 
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CLIPS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. A 
SERIES OF MODERATE TO STRONG NW SWELL EVENTS WILL AFFECT THE 
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA...GENERALLY ALONG 131W N OF 13N...AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH 
N OF HAWAII. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS 
GENERATING MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS N OF 7N W OF 132W. 
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...ALONG 110W 
N OF 10N. 

E OF 105W...
BROAD SFC TROUGHING DOMINATES THE AREA...WITH MODERATE CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS GENERALLY S OF 9N WITH LIGHTER AND MORE 
VARIABLE WINDS TO THE N OF 9N. N/NE WINDS 20-25 KT EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH 
20 KT NE/E WINDS ANTICIPATED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE 
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SAT. 

ALOFT...UPPER SW/S FLOW IS OVER MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN RIDGING 
OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG 110W. EMBEDDED 
DIFFLUENT ZONE IN THIS FLOW IS SUPPORTING THE SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.  


$$
WILLIS