000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W N OF 6N MOVING W 10 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA... 
NICARAGUA...AND ERN HONDURAS N OF 8N E OF 86W...WITH ADDITIONAL 
CONVECTION LEFT BEHIND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N77W 9N85W 7N100W 7N120W 9N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH IS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE W 
COAST OF MEXICO WITH A MEAN AXIS ALONG 115W. HOWEVER...SEVERAL 
SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH. ONE SHORTWAVE EXTENDS 
FROM S TEXAS ACROSS NRN MEXICO TO NEAR 18N118W AND IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A 70-90 KT JET WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO FROM CABO 
CORRIENTES TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE 
TROUGH IS PRIMARILY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BUT THERE IS 
RELATIVELY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE DEEP TROPICS SO THE 
CIRRUS PLUME IS QUITE MEAGER. IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVELS ARE 
ALSO VERY DRY AND SKIES ARE VIRTUALLY CLOUDLESS N OF THE ITCZ W 
OF 88W. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW HAS BEEN PLUNGING S 
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N115W. THE LOW IS BOUNDED BY A WEAK 50-60 KT 
JET ON ITS SW PERIPHERY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY 
SMALL CLOUD FIELD MOVING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO FROM 29N-35N 
BETWEEN 105W-115W. RADAR IMAGERY FROM YUMA AND TUCSON ARIZONA AS 
WELL AS EL PASO TEXAS SHOW THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THIS CLOUD MASS AND ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE FAR NRN 
PARTS OF THE STATES OF SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA.

W OF 120W...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED ALONG 130W MAINLY N OF 10N AND IS 
LOCATED JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED NEAR THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS AND TROUGHS ARE 
LOCATED BENEATH THE DIVERGENT REGIME OF THE TROUGH BUT REMAIN W 
OF 140W. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING 
MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA N OF 10N W 
OF 123W AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED 
RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM 16N-20N W OF 138W. FARTHER S...A 
LARGE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WELL S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 10S141W 
BUT THE CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND IT IS EFFECTING THE WIND FLOW OVER 
THE DISCUSSION AREA BY PRODUCING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE 
DEEP TROPICS W OF 115W. MOISTURE IS NOT READILY AVAILABLE 
HOWEVER... AND THE ITCZ REMAINS RELATIVELY INACTIVE.

$$
BERG