000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W N OF 5N MOVE WEST 10 KT. SOME 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA AND THE 
SOUTH PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W N OF 10N MOVING W 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE LINE...9N83W 6N120W 9N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVELS...
SIGNIFICANT DEEP TROUGH IS MOSTLY WEST OF THE AREA WEST OF THE 
LINE 32N136W 20N140W. EXTENSIVE AREA OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS IS 
NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 130W ASSOCIATED WITH DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW. AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH AREAS OF RAIN IS FROM 
16N TO 21N WEST OF 136W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST 
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

ANOTHER TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE LINE 32N130W TO CENTRAL BAJA 
PENINSULA NEAR 27N114W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 
32N121W AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 20 KT. MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE MOVING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA 
NORTH OF 30N.

MAINLY UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE 25N100W TO 15N117W. A 
PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDS 400 
NM SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE. WITHIN ABOUT 600 NM NORTHWEST OF THIS 
LINE DRY AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.    

A LARGE RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA AND THE 
TROUGHS MENTIONED ABOVE.

SURFACE...
WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 115W.  ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH 
IS ANALYZED.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GULF OF PAPAGAYO BOTH GAP WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
LL