000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210421
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 96W N OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT.  SCATTERED 
CONVECTION AT INTERSECTION OF WAVE AXIS AND ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W N OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA 
RICA AND NICARAGUA E OF 85W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  9N84W  8N91W  8N99W  7N113W  11N140W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS INTO E PAC W TEXAS AT 
32N103W TO 14N120W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS ALONG AXIS N OF 17N WHILE 
65 KT JET CORE BRINGS PLENTY OF TRPCL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL 
MEXICO.

UPSTREAM...MID/UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE COVER REMAINDER OF E PAC
N OF 15N MAINTAINING LID OVER ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO 
DEVELOP.  ONLY ITCZ IS ABLE TO BUILD SOME MINOR CONVECTION ALONG 
SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE.  S OF 15N...ELONGATED E-W RIDGE 
MAINTAINS CONTROL OF CONVECTION S OF ITCZ WITH ONLY MINOR 
DEVELOPMENT ALONG TROPICAL WAVE AT 96W.  

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE N OF ITCZ W OF 115W PROMPTING BRISK 
NE TRADES FROM 10N-25N W OF 130W LASTING THROUGH FORECAST 
PERIOD. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AS GULF OF MEXICO 
HIGH PRES SHIFTS FURTHER E.  STRONG SWRN CARIBBEAN E TRADES 
ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD START DIMINISHING THROUGH NEXT 48 
HRS. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES