000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202211
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W N OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT.  SCATTERED 
CONVECTION AT INTERSECTION OF WAVE AXIS AND ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W N OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALONG COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA 
RICA AND NICARAGUA E OF 84W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  9N84W  6N100W  8N120W  10N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120-180 NM OF AXIS W OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS INTO E PAC W TEXAS AT 
32N104W TO DEVELOPING CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 26N108W THEN CONTINUE 
TO 9N120W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS ALONG AXIS N OF 17N WHILE 65 KT 
JET CORE BRINGS PLENTY OF TRPCL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.  

UPSTREAM...MID/UPPER LEVEL BROAD RIDGE COVER REMAINDER OF E PAC
N OF 15N MAINTAINING LID OVER ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO 
DEVELOP.  ONLY ITCZ IS ABLE TO BUILD SOME CONVECTION ALONG SRN 
PERIPHERY OF RIDGE.  S OF 15N...ELONGATED E-W RIDGE MAINTAINS 
CONTROL OF CONVECTION S OF ITCZ WITH ONLY MINOR ALONG TROPICAL 
WAVE AT 94W.  

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE N OF ITCZ W OF 115W PROMPTING BRISK 
NE TRADES FROM 10N-25N W OF 130W LASTING THROUGH FORECAST 
PERIOD. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AS GULF OF MEXICO 
HIGH PRES SHIFTS FURTHER E.  STRONG SWRN CARIBBEAN E TRADES 
ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD START DIMINISHING THROUGH NEXT 48 
HRS. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES