000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200318
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W N OF 3N MOVING W 12 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1THE LINE...7N77W 7N100W 11N110W 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN THE FROM 10.5N TO 13N FROM 110W TO 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N111W. CIRCULATION IS PART 
OF TROUGH NORTH OF 15N FROM 100W TO 120W.  THE AREA IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. A PLUME OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITH 600 NM SOUTHEAST OF A JET MAXIMUM LOCATED 
ALONG THE LINE 15N115W TO 20N100W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE AND ARE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN 
MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE IS EMANATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION.

NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 120W BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. 
MULTI LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE WEST OF 130W AND ARE 
COMING FROM A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NEAR 147W.
   
THE ITCZ IS ACTIVE WEST OR 105W WITH A BROAD AREA OF MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS.

AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 105W. 
ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE 20 KT TO UP TO 30 KNOTS 
THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 20 KT IN 48 HOURS.

$$
LL