000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192138
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W N OF 3N MOVING W 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 1THE LINE...10N86W 7N98W 11N123W 
10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 114W AND 122W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 
135W...AND WITHIN 60-90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 104W 
AND 107W. 

...DISCUSSION...

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N112W. CIRCULATION IS PART 
OF TROUGH NORTH OF 15N FROM 100W TO 120W.  THE AREA IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. A PLUME OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITH 600 NM SOUTHEAST OF A JET MAXIMUM LOCATED 
ALONG THE LINE 15N110W TO 20N100W. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE AND ARE MOVING OVER SOUTHERN 
MEXICO. THIS MOISTURE IS EMANATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION.

NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 120W BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. 
MULTI LEVEL BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE WEST OF 130W AND ARE 
COMING FROM A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION BETWEEN 140W AND 
HAWAII.    

THE ITCZ IS ACTIVE WEST OR 105W WITH A BROAD AREA OF MULTI LEVEL 
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS.

AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGE IS NORTH OF 15N WEST OF 112W. 
ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL INCREASE FROM 20 KT 
TO UP TO 30 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS THEN FALL BACK TO NEAR 20 KT IN 48 
HOURS.

$$
LL