000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W N OF 8N MOVING W 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N85W 8N97W 10N120 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES TWO RIDGES AND TWO TROUGHS WITHIN AND 
FLANKING THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED E OF 
THE AREA OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WIDESPREAD MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE LIES E OF 95W BENEATH THE RIDGE ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF 
CONVECTION ARE LOCATED E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W. ABUNDANT 
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF THE ITCZ E OF 120W 
ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST 
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EASTERN TEXAS SW ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO 
TO A CUT OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N109W. WIND FLOW AROUND THE 
UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS WESTERN 
MEXICO...N OF A LINE FROM 20N105W TO 30N100W. SCATTERED MID/HIGH 
CLOUDINESS IS MOVING NE WITHIN 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE.

A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK IS LOCATED JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY RIDGE AXIS ALONG 120W BOUNDED BY THE TROUGH OVER MEXICO 
AND A SHARPER TROUGH NE OF HAWAII. THE RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE SURFACE 
REFLECTED AS A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 28N130W WHICH IS PRODUCING A SHALLOW
OVERCAST MARINE LAYER N OF 20N.  UPPER DIVERGENCE E OF THE LOW IS 
PRODUCING BROKEN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS N OF 15N W OF 133W. THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW IS PRIMARILY WESTERLY S OF 15N ALTHOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH 
DIFFLUENCE WHERE SOME OF THE WINDS TURN TO THE SE TO ENHANCE ITCZ 
CONVECTION W OF 105W.

$$
MUNDELL