000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170952
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N78W 6N88W 7N108W 10N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 105W...
UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO HAS FLATTENED AND EXTENDS SWD INTO THE WRN 
GULF OF MEXICO...AND SUBSIDENT AIR COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SE MEXICO 
AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS E OF 108W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH NEAR NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA IS ENHANCING SOME CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY W OF PANAMA. TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 110W HAS 50 KT WINDS 
ALOFT MAINLY S OF 10N ACROSS PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.

GALE CONDITIONS ARE ENDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. PREVIOUS 
QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE AREA OF CONCERN...AND THE NEXT OVERPASS IS 
ANOTHER 3 HOURS. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW GALE FORCE LATER THIS 
MORNING. 20-25 KT WINDS W OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD CONTINUE 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

W OF 105W...
A TROUGH OVER THE W TEXAS IS DRAGGING A SWATH OF DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE 
EWD N OF 20N INTO EXTREME NW MEXICO. FARTHER S...A DEEP CUT-OFF LOW 
IS DEVELOPING IN THE SUBTROPICS SE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH THE 
SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING EWD TO WRN MEXICO WITH WINDS OF 55-65 KT. 
THE UPPER LOW IS CAUSING SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 
142W...BUT SWLY WINDS ALOFT ARE BLOWING COLD-TOPPED CIRRUS INTO THE 
AREA FROM 10N-20N W OF 130W AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING E 
TOWARDS MEXICO.

$$
MUNDELL