000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162208
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2200 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 6N77W 9N84W 7N90W 9N127W 
9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 
100W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 105W...
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE UNITED STATES WITH A SHARP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING 
OFF THE E COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC...AND A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW 
CENTERED ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER. AS A RESULT...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO HAS WEAKENED AND EXTENDS NWD INTO E 
TEXAS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL EXTENDS ACROSS 21N WITH A 
CENTER OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND SUBSIDENT AIR COVERS 
MUCH OF CENTRAL/SE MEXICO AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS 
E OF 105W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED FROM GUATEMALA TO 
THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER AND IS ENHANCING SOME CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED 
ALONG 110W AND 50 KT WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED JUST DOWNSTREAM 
MAINLY S OF 10N IN THE DIRECTION OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.

GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO WRAPPING UP OVER THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ACCORDING TO AN 1800 UTC OBSERVATION OF NNE WINDS OF 
30 KT AND 18 FT SEAS FROM SHIP 3FMH7 AND A 1636 UTC 25 KM 
RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS WHICH ALSO INDICATED WINDS OF THE SAME 
MAGNITUDE. THIS EVENINGS QUIKSCAT PASS WILL HOPEFULLY PROVIDE 
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. NONETHELESS WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WINDS ARE ALSO UP TO 20-25 
KT FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WWD AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR NEXT 2 
DAYS OR SO.

W OF 105W...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS LIFTING N ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO
BORDER AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IS DRAGGING A SWATH OF DRY 
AIR/SUBSIDENCE EWD N OF 20N INTO EXTREME NW MEXICO. REGARDLESS 
OF THE DRY AIR...THE UPPER LOW IS CAUSING SCATTERED CLOUDINESS 
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN MEXICO. DUE TO 
THE SUBSIDENCE AND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N130W...A BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD LIES N OF 23N. FARTHER S...A DEEP CUT-OFF 
LOW HAS DEVELOPED SE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 22N EWD TO WRN MEXICO...WITH UPPER 
LEVEL WINDS OF 55-65 KT. THE UPPER LOW IS CAUSING SCATTERED 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 140W...BUT SWLY WINDS ALOFT ARE 
BLOWING COLD-TOPPED CIRRUS INTO THE AREA FROM 10N-20N W OF 130W 
AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING E TOWARDS MEXICO.

$$
COBB