000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N77W 9N84W 7N90W 9N127W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
92W-100W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 110W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 105W...
A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS TAKEN HOLD ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE 
E COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC...AND A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED 
OVER ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO HAS 
WEAKENED AND EXTENDS NWD INTO TEXAS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS 
STILL EXTENDS ACROSS 21N WITH A CENTER OVER THE WRN GULF OF 
MEXICO...AND SUBSIDENT AIR COVERS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SE MEXICO AS 
WELL AS THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS E OF 105W. A WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED FROM GUATEMALA TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA 
BORDER AND IS ENHANCING SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR COSTA RICA 
AND PANAMA. ANOTHER TROUGH IS LOCATED ALONG 110W AND 50 KT WINDS 
ALOFT ARE LOCATED JUST DOWNSTREAM MAINLY S OF 10N IN THE 
DIRECTION OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA.

THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ACCORDING 
TO QUIKSCAT DATA...ASCAT DATA...AND SHIP 3FMH7 WHICH REPORTED 35 
KT AT 1200 UTC. THE HIGHEST WINDS CURRENTLY ARE NEAR 40 KT BUT 
WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN SHOULD BE 
WELL BELOW GALE FORCE BY SAT MORNING. SEAS HAVE LIKELY REACHED 
THEIR MAXIMUM NEAR 16 FT AND WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WINDS 
ARE ALSO UP TO 20-25 KT FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WWD AND SHOULD 
CONTINUE FOR THE 2 DAYS OR SO.

W OF 105W...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS LIFTING N THROUGH ARIZONA AND THE 
ASSOCIATED TROUGHING IS DRAGGING A SWATH OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE 
EWD N OF 20N INTO EXTREME NW MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF THE DRY 
AIR...THE UPPER LOW IS CAUSING SCATTERED CLOUDINESS WITH 
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NW MEXICO. DUE TO THE 
SUBSIDENCE AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N131W...A BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD LIES N OF 23N. FARTHER S...A DEEP CUT-OFF 
LOW HAS DEVELOPED SE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE SUBTROPICAL 
JET EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 20N EWD TO WRN MEXICO...WITH UPPER 
LEVEL WINDS NEAR 50 KT. THE UPPER LOW IS CAUSING SCATTERED 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 140W...BUT SWLY WINDS ALOFT ARE 
BLOWING COLD-TOPPED CIRRUS INTO THE AREA FROM 10N-20N W OF 130W 
AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING E TOWARDS MEXICO.

$$
BERG