000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N82W 7N95W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF 13N112W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINANT FEATURE E OF 110W. SOME TROPICAL 
MOISTURE AVAILABLE S OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. SCATTERED CONVECTION 
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.

MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG 112W IS BEING DEFLECTED NE BY 
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. WELL DEFINED TUTT EXTENDS FROM NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TO 27N134W TO SE OF HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
DRY AIR BENEATH THE TROUGH AXIS BUT BROADLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SE 
OF THE TUTT IS CREATING LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DENSE 
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS S OF 20N W OF 110W. HOWEVER VERY LITTLE DEEP 
CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THIS AREA.

1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 31N132W WITH SFC RIDGE TO 21N110W MAINTAINS 
TRADES W OF 122-125W FROM 10N-20N. WEAK LOW PRES OVER SRN CALIFORNIA.

STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH GULF OF MEXICO CREATING STRONG 
GRADIENT ACROSS ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH QUIKSCAT WINDS IN GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOWING GALE FORCE TO 40 KT. WIND EVENT WILL BE SHORT 
LIVED AS HIGH PRES QUICKLY MOVES E AND WINDS BECOME SE IN GULF OF 
MEXICO. GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE WINDS REMAIN 20-25 KT THROUGH PERIOD AS 
HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER NW CARIBBEAN SEA.   

$$
MUNDELL