000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150358
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N77W 9N85W 5N100W 9N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 6N TO 12N W OF 
112W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
ITS AXIS ALONG 32N136W 27N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS AT 
29N128W WITH A RIDGE N TO WELL BEYOND 35N125W...RIDGE THE RIDGE 
BEGINNING TO COLLAPSE SE TOWARDS CALIFORNIA. THE UPPER LEVELS 
ARE DRY N OF 20N W OF 117W.

IMMEDIATELY TO THE E...A DEEP LAYERED AND VERTICALLY STACKED 
CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 25N117W WITH THE SURFACE 
REFLECTION AT 1013 MB. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM S AMERICA 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CREST OVER THE PAC WATERS ALONG 
18N111W 29N107W 31N97W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS WELL S OF THE 
AREA 15S150W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTING FROM 14N140W TO THE 
EQUATOR AT 120W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 112W IS ENHANCED 
UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE STREAMING NE ALONG THE 
W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TURNING E ALONG 32N ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN CONUS TO FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ENHANCED UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE PARALLEL TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. 
OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY S OF 17N E OF 110W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK ITCZ DISTURBANCE...IS NEAR 
10N136W AND APPEARS TO MOVING W AT 8 KT WITHOUT ANY ORGANIZED 
CONVECTION.

GAP WINDS...NLY WINDS TO 20 KT NEAR PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. NLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A MINIMAL GALE IN 18 HOURS AND A 
STRONG GALE IN 306 HOURS...WITH SOME MODELS HINTING AT NEAR STORM
FORCE IN 48 HOURS.
 
$$
NELSON