000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 8N85W 6N93W 8N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 7N79W AND FROM 7N TO 
12N W OF 116W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING THE NW CORNER WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 
32N138W 27N14W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS AT 31N128W WITH A 
RIDGE N TO WELL BEYOND 35N127W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED N OF 20N 
W OF 117W. IMMEDIATELY TO THE E...A DEEP LAYERED AND VERTICALLY 
STACKED CYCLONE IS QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 25N117W WITH THE 
SURFACE REFLECTION AT 1012 MB. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS NW FROM S 
AMERICA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CREST OVER THE PAC WATERS 
ALONG 17N114W 25N110W 31N102W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS WELL S OF 
THE AREA 15S150W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE CRESTING FROM 15N140W TO 
THE EQUATOR AT 117W. CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 116W IS 
ENHANCED UNDER THIS RIDGE WITH THE DEBRIS MOISTURE STREAMING NE 
ALONG THE W PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE TURNING ALONG 32N 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ENHANCED UNDER 
THE UPPER RIDGE PARALLEL TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. 
OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY S OF 17N E OF 110W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 85W HAS BECOME 
SO WEAK THAT IT WILL DROPPED FROM THE NEXT SURFACE ANALYSIS.
ANOTHER WAVE...OR WEAK ITCZ DISTURBANCE...IS NEAR 10N135W AND 
APPEARS TO MOVING W AT 8 KT WITHOUT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

GAP WINDS...NLY WINDS TO 20 KT NEAR PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO 
PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS. NLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A MINIMAL GALE IN 24 HOURS AND A 
STRONG GALE IN 36 HOURS...WITH SOME MODELS HINTING AT NEAR STORM 
FORCE.
 
$$
NELSON