000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141608
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N84W 7N98W 9N126W 9N140W. CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
OBSERVED FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 113W TO 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 25N117W AND IT IS 
ACTING TO FUNNEL A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ 
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS/LOUISIANA.  THIS LOW 
IS PROGGED TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW.  
EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 113W...THE REGION IS 
DOMINATED BY A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT.  

AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS A WEAK NON-CONVECTIVE LOW NEAR 26N117W 
THAT IS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW.  THERE ALSO ARE TWO WEAK 
TROUGHS/TROPICAL WAVES...ONE NEAR 134W AND ONE AT 84W MOVING 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.  HOWEVER...NEITHER HAVE MUCH LOW-LEVEL 
VORTICITY NOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  NO MODELS SPIN EITHER 
SYSTEM UP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  

THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURES BOTH CURRENT AND FORECAST ARE THE 
PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENTS.  A 1212 UTC QUIKSCAT 
PASS SHOWED WINDS UP TO 20 KT NEAR PAPAGAYO AND UP TO 25 KT NEAR 
TEHUANTEPEC.  THE PAPAGAYO WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT ABOUT 20 KT 
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE TEHUANTEPEC WINDS 
SHOULD INTENSIFY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT 
THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW.  GALES 
SHOULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 30 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.  AS THE 
FRONT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND COOL AIR SPILLS ACROSS 
THE GAP...THE WINDS MAY PEAK AROUND 45 KT BETWEEN 36 AND 48 
HOURS AS THE ENHANCED INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW STRONGER WINDS ALOFT 
TO REACH THE SURFACE.  A STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED 
LATER...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL REACH THAT INTENSITY.  
THE GALE EVENT IS LIKELY TO END IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

$$
LANDSEA