000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131556 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE NOV 13 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N77W 9N85W 5N94W 9N110W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-8N E OF 79W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM OF AXIS W OF 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 123W-128W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 110W... A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO NW MEXICO...ANCHORED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE RIDGE...COVERING THE PACIFIC WATERS AND EXTENDING N ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. DEEP MOISTURE IS CONFINED MAINLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS ITSELF...OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WHICH MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS NOW LOCATED ALONG 90W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 90W-95W...BUT IT IS PRECEDED BY A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS WHICH WAS SCOURED OUT BY THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP FLOW. THE ITCZ IS PERTURBED TO THE N MAINLY E OF 88W AND IS CAUSING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND COASTAL COLOMBIA. W OF 110W... A DEEP-LAYERED CUT-OFF LOW IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 27N117W WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SAME AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH CURLS S AND SW OF THE LOW TO 21N120W 19N128W FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF DRIER AIR FROM THE N. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FEEDS INTO THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR 10N130W NE PAST THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NW MEXICO. THE TROUGH AXIS ITSELF EXTENDS FROM 20N120W WSW TO 18N137W AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE TROUGH IS CAUSING SOME DIFFLUENCE A LITTLE FARTHER S...AND IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AND NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 127W. FARTHER NW...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N132W WITH A RIDGE RUNNING NE/SW ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED TO THE E IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH A COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA BY WED AFTERNOON. $$ BERG