000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122206
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N82W 7N94W 7N100W 10N120W 8N130W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
107W-110W...FROM 119W-122W AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
126W-129W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS W FROM SWRN CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N 
TO SRN HALF OF MEXICO THEN TURNS NW ALONG 100W TO TEXAS.  UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING NE 15 KT 18N105W...FORCED BY LARGE 
AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N114W TO CYCLONIC 
VORTEX AT 29N117W THEN CONTINUE TO 17N140W.  ASSOCIATED MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS AREA WITHIN 240 NM OF TROUGH AXIS S 
OF VORTEX.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMPLETES PICTURE UPSTREAM FROM 
LONGWAVE TROUGH BRINGING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE N OF 25N FROM 
123-136W.  

AT THE SURFACE...
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVING ESE 20 KT EXTENDS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SW 
THROUGH 24N111W WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE.  SURGE OF NW-N WIND 
JUST W OF TROUGH ALONG COAST.  

STATIONARY 1023 MB HIGH PRES AT 31N132W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE 
TO 16N105W.  NE TRADES 10N-20N W OF 130W TO REMAIN THROUGH 
FORECAST PERIOD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES