000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121613
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N82W 7N94W 8N105W 10N118W 8N130W
8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118.5W-121.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W-109W...
AND ALSO BETWEEN 128W-131W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN 
ALONG 17N TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND NW TO SE MEXICO THIS 
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING NE 15 KT IS NEAR 
18N105W. ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH
OF THE AREA SE OF A LINE FROM 25N107W TO 19N110W. A WEAK 
MID/UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KT 
EXTENDS FROM 18N100W TO 8N103W.THE TROUGH TO 92W FROM 9N-14N. 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 110W S OF 20N. A WEAK 
SURFACE TROUGH LIES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 29N TO 22N.

W OF 110W...
A NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS JUST W OF 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N117W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW 
THROUGH 24N119W 19N127W 19N130W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO 
20N137W. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ESE ABOUT 20 
KT EXTENDS FROM NW BAJA CALIFORNIA SW THROUGH 29N117W TO 27N119W
WHERE IT BECOMES DIFFUSE TO 25N126W. DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THE 
TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W-130W. 
A 30 NM WIDE BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE 
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DENOTES THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FOLLOWED
BY A SURGE OF NW-N WINDS TO 20 KT.

A NARROW SWATH OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LIES WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING ESE 
10-15 KT IS NEAR 27N138W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 23N131W. ELSEWHERE
S OF 17N AND W OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD IN BROAD SW UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE DIVERGENCE EXISTS TO ENHANCE DEEP 
TROPICAL CONVECTION THERE.

AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1023 MB HIGH IS LOCATED
NEAR 31N130W WITH A RIDGE SE TO 23N118W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE
AREA N OF 18N. ELSEWHERE N OF 17N AND S OF THE FRONT SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOVING W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT.

$$
AGUIRRE